When the talk turns to projected NFL win totals, it feels like Las Vegas always seems to know something we don’t. Once again, the over/unders for all 32 teams are tricky to navigate going into the 2019 season.
First, below are all of those over/under win totals for NFL teams in 2019, courtesy of BetOnline.ag.
MORE: Ranking the NFL’s best rivalries in 2019
NFL over/under win totals for 2019
|New England Patriots||11 wins|
|New Orleans Saints||10 1/2 wins|
|Los Angeles Rams||10 1/2 wins|
|Kanas City Chiefs||10 wins|
|Chicago Bears||9 1/2 wins|
|Green Bay Packers||9 1/2 wins|
|Indianapolis Colts||9 1/2 wins|
|Los Angeles Chargers||9 1/2 wins|
|Philadelphia Eagles||9 1/2 wins|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||9 1/2 wins|
|Dallas Cowboys||9 wins|
|Atlanta Falcons||9 wins|
|Cleveland Browns||9 wins|
|Minnesota Vikings||9 wins|
|Houston Texans||8 1/2 wins|
|Seattle Seahawks||8 1/2 wins|
|Baltimore Ravens||8 wins|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||8 wins|
|San Francisco 49ers||8 wins|
|Tennessee Titans||8 wins|
|Carolina Panthers||7 1/2 wins|
|Buffalo Bills||7 wins|
|New York Jets||7 wins|
|Detroit Lions||7 wins|
|Denver Broncos||7 wins|
|Oakland Raiders||6 1/2 wins|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||6 1/2 wins|
|Washington Redskins||6 1/2 wins|
|Cincinnati Bengals||6 wins|
|New York Giants||6 wins|
|Miami Dolphins||5 wins|
|Arizona Cardinals||5 wins|
When going division by division and assessing both the favorites and faders, there are eight teams that stand out as the best possible bets for being either a little overrated or a little underrated.
Here they are, in order of confidence.
1. Green Bay Packers
OVER 9 1/2 wins
The Packers finished 6-9-1 last season to prompt the end of the MIke McCarhty era. So we’re projecting a big four-win improvement for this bet to pay off.
Green Bay’s strength of schedule is middle of the pack. The Bears and Vikings both finished above .500 last season, a combined 20-11-1.
This won’t be easy, but quarterback Aaron Rodgers and new coach Matt LaFleur, with a much-improved defense in support, can throw Green Bay back to 2016. With a third-place schedule, Green Bay also gets two breaks that Chicago and Minnesota don’t get.
MORE: Rodgers tops list of potential Hall of Famers in Green Bay
2. Seattle Seahawks
OVER 8.5 wins
Russell Wilson has never missed a game in his career and has never endured a losing season. While the Seahawks’ defense undergoes more transition and his receiving corps gets further remixed, Wilson will once again be in MVP candidate form to help them win more games than they should.
The Seahawks also have the eighth weakest schedule in the NFL. That’s reason enough to think they’ll get at least nine wins – which would represent a one-game slide – behind the Rams in the division.
3. Cleveland Browns
OVER 9.5 wins
The Browns are slight division favorites over the Steelers, as many expect the Ravens to fall back after overachieving last season and losing key defensive pieces this offseason. With the Bengals set to have some new life with coach Zac Taylor, the AFC North figures to be tougher overall, but the winner should still finish 10-6.
Cleveland suddenly has few holes on either side of the ball, and the hype is warranted. The team will win more with offense thanks to Baker Mayfield, but defensive coordinator Steve Wilks also will lead a stronger complementary pass-rushing unit.
Based on 2018 records, the Browns also have the 10th most favorable schedule in the league.
4. Oakland Raiders
UNDER 6.5 wins
The Chiefs are massive favorites to repeat as AFC West champions, and the Chargers should be right there with them again. Those teams each had 12 wins last season.
Meanwhile, the Raiders (4-12) and Broncos (6-10) combined for only 10 victories. A three-game improvement for Oakland would mean jumping Denver and beating either Kansas City or Los Angeles once. That seems unlikely against the league’s strongest schedule overall.
5. Washington Redskins
UNDER 6.5 wins
This suggests the Redskins will be at least as good as they were last season, when they finished third in the NFC East at 7-9, only two games ahead of the Giants.
The Redskins do have the easiest schedule in the NFL, as their opponents combined for a .469 winning percentage in 2018. But games against the Eagles, Cowboys and Bears early in the season set them up to have a slow start from which it will be hard to recover.
Beyond its weaknesses on both sides of the ball, Washington will miss the stability of Alex Smith on offense and Zach Brown on defense. The team is also in a top-heavy division where both Dallas (10-6) and Philadelphia (9-7) can improve their records.
UNIFORM RANKINGS: NFL’s best and worst looks
6. Houston Texans
UNDER 8.5 wins
The Texans have the fourth toughest schedule in the NFL, right behind the Raiders, Broncos and Jaguars. They went 11-5 last season on the strength of a midseason, nine-game winning streak. But they also survived several close games, including two in overtime.
Indianapolis (10-6 last season) has the division-favorite momentum after knocking off Houston in the playoffs and is expected to be the bigger AFC title challenger. Tennessee is likely to slide from 9-7, while Jacksonville should be a couple wins improved from 5-11.
The Texans will be much of the same team they were last year, but they are bound to regress to the mean, which in their case is an average .500 record.
7. Carolina Panthers
OVER 7.5 wins
The Saints, improved from the 13-3 team that fell one play short of the Super Bowl, will win the NFC South again this season. But second place is up for grabs between the Falcons and Panthers, who both finished 7-9 last year. They are similar in many ways, but Carolina has lower expectations and better defensive potential.
Atlanta has a much more aggressive win total at nine. It also faces a strength of schedule that’s tied for seventh in the NFL, while Carolina is tied for 16th. New Orleans is set at 10.5 wins, while Tampa Bay is at 6.5. There’s more volatility with the first- and last-place teams there.
Projecting the Panthers to simply finish .500 or better brings more of a comfort zone.
MORE: The NFL’s most indispensable defensive players, ranked 1-25
8. New York Jets
OVER 7 wins
The Jets got some bad publicity after new coach Adam Gase won the power struggle over now-former general manager Mike Maccagnan. But before the GM was dismissed, he added two game-changing players in running back Le’Veon Bell and inside linebacker C.J. Mosley.
New York already carries a high improvement expectation after finishing 4-12 last season. The thinking is the Dolphins (7-9 in 2018) will be at least two games worse, and the Bills (6-10 in 2019) might not be any better.
The Jets are tied for the second easiest schedule with the Patriots, Rams, Giants and Bengals, as their opponents combined for a .473 winning percentage last season. Gase has a history of immediate playoff results, as he led Miami to a 10-6 record in his first year there.
That’s shooting for the moon, though. All we need here is a .500 team, and the Jets’ upgrades (and others’ downgrades) should add up to at least that.