This NBA season, I’m trying something new. I’m going to write a daily piece that highlights everything bettors and DFS players need to know for that night’s slate. For more on what to expect, read the inaugural piece.
Yesterday I finished 3-3 for +0.1 units. While I don’t want to get sucked into the past, I think it’s worth reviewing things each day.
The best way to do that is to look at closing line value (CLV), which is just measuring whether the line you bet moved for or against you by closing.
- I bet Rockets +1 and it closed at Rockets +1 (lost)
- I bet Warriors-Mavericks under 217/216.5 and it closed at 216 (lost)
- I bet Mavericks -14.5 and it closed at Mavericks -14.5 (won)
- I bet Warriors team total under 101 and it closed at u101.5 (won)
- I bet Raptors (2H) +1 (-105) and it closed at +1.5 -110 (won)
It wasn’t a big day either way for CLV, in large part because I grabbed several of these lines very near to closing. The Rockets disappointed, scoring just 95 points, and the “Math Problem” I thought would exist ended up not mattering given Houston’s poor shooting. It’s a make-or-miss league indeed.
I bet the Warriors-Mavericks under earlier in the day then grabbed a bit more of it, along with Mavs -14.5, once it was announced that Draymond Green was out and the Dubs would have just eight players. The under didn’t hit after a 68-point garbage time fourth quarter, but I was able to get some upside betting the Warriors team total. They had just 16 and 22 points in the first and second quarters, respectively.
And finally, perhaps the easiest bet of the night was the Raptors to cover a point in the second half. It was announced that Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon would be out for the second half, and because halftime is so short and it’s a smaller market, the line was just a bad one and didn’t really budge.
That’s the value of following news throughout the day and night — you can often find immense second-half and live value when players leave due to injuries. Honestly I should’ve bet heavier on that one given the projected edge.
Anyway, let’s get to today’s small two-game slate and find some angles. This is a long post, so use the jump links below to skip ahead to whatever you’re looking for.
Note: For updates, see the chat at the bottom of this post.
- Overall: 87-65-1
- Spreads: 31-26-1
- Totals: 21-16
- Moneylines: 5-2
- Props: 28-20
Betting Odds and Analysis
- 8 p.m. ET: Portland Trail Blazers at Milwaukee Bucks (-13), 227.5
- 10:30 p.m. ET: New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns (-4), 234.5
Let’s run through each of today’s games.
Blazers at Bucks
I was able to grab the Bucks at -12 and the under at 230.5 shortly after it opened. I just didn’t think those were great lines with the injury situation in this one, particularly with Damian Lillard out.
I discussed this the other night when I bet the Pels against the Blazers without Lillard, but I’ll lay it out again.