Friday, November 29, 2019

Boston Celtics vs Brooklyn Nets

The odds favor the Celtics, and the sims are solidly on the Celtics as well. The projected score is Celtics 105 and Nets 102, and Boston is winning 59% of simulations. At -165 on the moneyline, the Celtics implied probability to win is 62 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Celtics have been dominating this matchup recently with a 7-2 record. In these games, the Celtics averaged 107 and the Nets 102 ppg. The projection based point spread is BOS -3.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening BKN +3.5. The Celtics have a record of 5-5-1 as a favorite. The Nets have a record of 34-32-0 as an underdog. The Nets have been better against the spread than straight up in previous matchups. The Nets have the ATS edge head to head going 5-4-0 vs the Celtics. The average point spread in these games was Celtics -4.6 and they won by an average of 4.9 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Boston Celtics 217 110.2 105.3 60% 59% 106.8 (7 Wins)
Brooklyn Nets +3.5 106.8 101.7 40% 41% 101.9 (2 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Charlotte Hornets vs Detroit Pistons

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The Pistons are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Pistons 111 and Hornets 105, and Detroit is winning 65% of simulations. The moneyline for the Pistons is -318 which translates to 76 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Hornets have been dominating this matchup recently with a 6-0 record. In these games, the Hornets averaged 106 and the Pistons 99 ppg. The computer would set the spread at DET -6. More of the action seems to be on the Pistons with the Vegas line moving from -7.5 to -8. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Pistons are 25-20-0. As an underdog, the Hornets are 9-8-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Hornets have the ATS edge head to head going 5-1-0 vs the Pistons. The Pistons were favored by an average of -1.1 points in these games but the Hornets won by an average of 6.7 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Charlotte Hornets 213 102.5 105.2 27% 35% 105.7 (6 Wins)
Detroit Pistons -8.0 110.5 111.0 73% 65% 99.0 (0 Wins)

Toronto Raptors vs Orlando Magic

The odds favor the Raptors, and the sims are solidly on the Raptors as well. The projected score is Raptors 108 and Magic 99, with Toronto being given a 73% chance of winning. The Raptors are -159 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 61 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Raptors have been dominating this matchup recently with a 8-3 record. In these games, the Raptors averaged 104 and the Magic 98 ppg. The projection based point spread is TOR -9. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening ORL +3. The Raptors have a record of 8-2-0 as a favorite. The Magic have a record of 33-31-2 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Raptors have the ATS edge head to head going 6-5-0 vs the Magic. The average point spread in these games was Raptors -6.9 and they won by an average of 6.1 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Toronto Raptors 206.5 104.8 108.3 59% 73% 104.4 (8 Wins)
Orlando Magic +3.0 101.7 99.3 41% 27% 98.3 (3 Wins)

Milwaukee Bucks vs Cleveland Cavaliers

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Bucks over the Cavaliers despite being on the road. The projected score is Bucks 116 and Cavaliers 102, with Milwaukee winning 82% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Bucks is -637 which translates to 86 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In their last 9 matchups the Bucks are 5-4. In these games, the Bucks averaged 115 and the Cavaliers 111 ppg. The projection based point spread is MIL -14.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening CLE +10.5. The Bucks have a record of 7-10-0 as a favorite. The Cavaliers have a record of 7-7-2 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Bucks are 5-3-1 against the spread vs the Cavaliers. The average point spread in these games was Bucks -5.2 and they won by an average of 3.8 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Milwaukee Bucks 228.5 119.5 116.5 83% 82% 114.7 (5 Wins)
Cleveland Cavaliers +10.5 109.0 101.8 17% 18% 110.9 (4 Wins)

Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the 76ers to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is 76ers 107 and Knicks 104, with Philadelphia being given a 57% chance of winning. The 76ers are -330 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 77 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the 76ers going 9-0. In these games, the 76ers averaged 116 and the Knicks 102 ppg. The projection based point spread is PHI -3. Bettors seem to be favoring the Knicks with the Vegas moving from +8 to +7.5. The 76ers have a record of 6-8-0 as a favorite. The Knicks have a record of 8-7-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The 76ers are 6-3-0 against the spread vs the Knicks. The average point spread in these games was 76ers -10.3 and they won by an average of 13.2 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Philadelphia 76ers 206.5 107.0 106.9 74% 57% 115.6 (9 Wins)
New York Knicks +7.5 99.5 104.1 26% 43% 102.3 (0 Wins)

Atlanta Hawks vs Indiana Pacers

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Pacers over the Hawks. The projected score is Pacers 116 and Hawks 99, and Indiana is winning 87% of the sims. The Pacers are -626 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 86 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Pacers going 7-1. In these games the Pacers averaged 114 points per game and the Hawks 104. The projection based point spread is IND -16.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -10.5. The Pacers have a record of 5-5-2 as a favorite. The Hawks have a record of 8-9-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Pacers are 5-3-0 against the spread vs the Hawks. The Pacers were favored by an average of -6.1 points in these games and they won by an average of 9.8 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Atlanta Hawks 225.5 107.5 99.0 17% 13% 104.2 (1 Win)
Indiana Pacers -10.5 118.0 115.5 83% 87% 114.0 (7 Wins)

Utah Jazz vs Memphis Grizzlies

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds clearly favor the Jazz. The projected score is Jazz 108 and Grizzlies 107, with Utah being given a 52% chance of winning. At -302 on the moneyline, the Jazz implied probability to win is 75 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Jazz averaged 98 and the Grizzlies 97 ppg. The computer would set the spread at UTA -1. With more action on the Grizzlies side, the line has adjusted from +7.5 to +7. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Jazz are 5-8-0. As an underdog, the Grizzlies are 7-9-0. The Grizzlies are 6-2-0 against the spread vs the Jazz. The average point spread in these games was Jazz -8.1 and they won by an average of 1.2 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Utah Jazz 219.5 113.2 107.6 72% 52% 98.0 (4 Wins)
Memphis Grizzlies +7.0 106.3 106.7 28% 48% 96.8 (4 Wins)

Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Heat to win the game. The projected score is Heat 110 and Warriors 94, with Miami winning 84% of the time. At -907 on the moneyline, the Heat implied probability to win is 90 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Warriors are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. In these games, the Warriors averaged 116 and the Heat 105 ppg. The computer would set the spread at MIA -15.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -12. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Heat are 26-24-1. As an underdog, the Warriors are 9-7-1. Both have covered 2 times head-to-head. The average point spread in these games was Warriors -12 and they won by an average of 11.5 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Golden State Warriors 96.0 94.3 14% 16% 116.2 (3 Wins)
Miami Heat -12.0 108.0 109.7 86% 84% 104.8 (1 Win)

New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder

The odds favor the Thunder, and the sims are solidly on the Thunder as well. The projected score is Thunder 120 and Pelicans 108, and Oklahoma City is winning 76% of the sims. The Thunder are -172 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 63 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Pelicans averaged 115 and the Thunder 114 ppg. The projection based point spread is OKC -11. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -4. The Thunder have a record of 32-35-1 as a favorite. The Pelicans have a record of 6-7-0 as an underdog. The Pelicans are 5-3-0 against the spread vs the Thunder. The Thunder were favored by an average of -4.5 points in these games but the Pelicans won by an average of 0.8 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
New Orleans Pelicans 228.5 112.2 108.4 39% 24% 114.6 (4 Wins)
Oklahoma City Thunder -4.0 116.3 119.5 61% 76% 113.9 (4 Wins)

LA Clippers vs San Antonio Spurs

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Clippers to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Clippers 117 and Spurs 108, with Los Angeles being given a 73% chance of winning. The Clippers are -247 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 71 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Clippers based on how the moneyline is moving. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Spurs averaged 111 points per game and the Clippers 104. The computer would set the spread at LAC -10. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening SA +6. The Clippers have a record of 8-7-0 as a favorite. The Spurs have a record of 21-22-1 as an underdog. The Spurs have the ATS edge head to head going 5-3-0 vs the Clippers. The Spurs were favored by an average of -2 points in these games and they won by an average of 7.2 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
LA Clippers 226.5 116.2 117.4 68% 73% 103.9 (4 Wins)
San Antonio Spurs +6.0 110.3 107.6 32% 27% 111.1 (4 Wins)

Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns

The odds favor the Mavericks, and the sims are solidly on the Mavericks as well. The projected score is Mavericks 117 and Suns 108, with Dallas winning 70% of the latest sims. The Mavericks are -123 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 55 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Suns going 5-2. In these games the Suns averaged 107 points per game and the Mavericks 98. The projection based point spread is DAL -8.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening PHO +1.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Mavericks are 6-5-0. As an underdog, the Suns are 7-3-0. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Suns are 6-1-0 against the spread vs the Mavericks. The average point spread in these games was Mavericks -5.7 but the Suns won by an average of 8.1 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Dallas Mavericks 233.5 117.5 117.0 53% 70% 98.4 (2 Wins)
Phoenix Suns +1.5 116.0 108.4 47% 30% 106.6 (5 Wins)

Chicago Bulls vs Portland Trail Blazers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Trail Blazers to win the game. The projected score is Trail Blazers 118 and Bulls 111, and Portland is winning 67% of the sims. At -331 on the moneyline, the Trail Blazers implied probability to win is 77 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Trail Blazers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-0 record. In these games the Trail Blazers averaged 121 points per game and the Bulls 106. The projection based point spread is POR -7. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -7.5. The Trail Blazers have a record of 5-6-0 as a favorite. The Bulls have a record of 36-47-1 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Trail Blazers have the ATS edge head to head going 5-0-0 vs the Bulls. The Trail Blazers were favored by an average of -4.9 points in these games and they won by an average of 15 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Chicago Bulls 225 108.8 110.6 26% 33% 106.4 (0 Wins)
Portland Trail Blazers -7.5 116.2 117.7 74% 67% 121.4 (5 Wins)

Washington Wizards vs LA Lakers

The Lakers are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Lakers 118 and Wizards 106, and Los Angeles is winning 77% of simulations. At -721 on the moneyline, the Lakers implied probability to win is 88 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Wizards averaged 111 and the Lakers 108 ppg. The computer would set the spread at LAL -11. With more action on the Wizards, oddsmakers have moved the line from +11.5 to +11. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Lakers are 9-8-0. As an underdog, the Wizards are 9-2-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. They both covered the spread 2 times in their last few matchups. The average point spread in these games was Wizards -2.4 and they won by an average of 3.2 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Washington Wizards 234 111.5 106.4 16% 23% 111.0 (2 Wins)
LA Lakers -11.0 122.5 117.6 84% 77% 107.8 (2 Wins)

Saturday, November 30, 2019

Denver Nuggets vs Sacramento Kings

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Kings are favored. The projected score is Kings 109 and Nuggets 107, and Sacramento is winning 58% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Nuggets have been dominating this matchup recently with a 7-1 record. In these games, the Nuggets averaged 113 and the Kings 103 ppg. The computer would set the spread at SAC -2. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Kings are 21-11-0. As an underdog, the Nuggets are 14-15-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Nuggets have the ATS edge head to head going 6-2-0 vs the Kings. The average point spread in these games was Nuggets -8.2 and they won by an average of 9.8 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Denver Nuggets 106.6 42% 112.8 (7 Wins)
Sacramento Kings 108.8 58% 103.0 (1 Win)

Indiana Pacers vs Philadelphia 76ers

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the 76ers are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is 76ers 111 and Pacers 106, and Philadelphia is winning 62% of the sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. Head-to-head, the 76ers are 4-3. In these games the 76ers averaged 105 points per game and the Pacers 100. The projection based point spread is PHI -4.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The 76ers have a record of 6-8-0 as a favorite. The Pacers have a record of 19-24-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The 76ers have the ATS edge head to head going 4-3-0 vs the Pacers. The 76ers were favored by an average of -1.9 points in these games and they won by an average of 5 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Indiana Pacers 105.9 38% 100.4 (3 Wins)
Philadelphia 76ers 110.6 62% 105.4 (4 Wins)

Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Rockets are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Rockets 124 and Hawks 105, with Houston winning 88% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Rockets have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-0 record. In these games the Rockets averaged 119 points per game and the Hawks 105. The computer would set the spread at HOU -19. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Rockets are 7-8-0. As an underdog, the Hawks are 8-9-0. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Rockets have the ATS edge head to head going 3-1-0 vs the Hawks. The Rockets were favored by an average of -10.6 points in these games and they won by an average of 14.5 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Atlanta Hawks 105.2 12% 104.8 (0 Wins)
Houston Rockets 124.0 88% 119.2 (4 Wins)

Charlotte Hornets vs Milwaukee Bucks

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Bucks are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Bucks 115 and Hornets 109, with Milwaukee winning 64% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Bucks are up in this matchup recently going 5-3. In these games the Bucks averaged 112 points per game and the Hornets 109. The computer would set the spread at MIL -6. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Bucks have a record of 7-10-0 as a favorite. The Hornets have a record of 9-8-0 as an underdog. The Hornets have been better against the spread than straight up vs the Bucks. The Hornets have the ATS edge head to head going 5-3-0 vs the Bucks. The Bucks were favored by an average of -4.1 points in these games and they won by an average of 3.5 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Charlotte Hornets 108.9 36% 108.8 (3 Wins)
Milwaukee Bucks 114.8 64% 112.2 (5 Wins)